Good morning everyone! We had the potential to see our Subby’s One Inch Snowfall Contest come to the end on Saturday BUT, here at the weather center we did not receive 1″ of snowfall so the contest continues on! The Global Predictor showed our first measurable snow possible here in WCMO on December 1st back months ago. This was so close as many areas did receive at least a dusting in our northern WCMO area such as Harrisonville, Warrensburg and Sedalia. We are STILL in the first cycle of the LRC that began around October 6th. This will likely be a long cycle length for the 2024/2025 model. Most cycles are between 40 and 50 days, but could be as few at 30 and as many as 70! Last year was around 44 days. So far, this cycle has started off warm and dry, but the second half of the cycle has 8 STORM SYSTEMS SO FAR! So the next time these storm systems cycle through in January, there is a chance at least a couple of them will be strong winter storms. Here is a look at the LRC Dashboard, which is available to us at Subby’s Weather Talk as being a corporate sponsor of the LRC; the first pic below is the precipitation by day/week;
You will notice a spike of precip around the 8-11th of December as well as the 15th through 19th. This has been holding steady for around 4 months. Now take a look at the time stamp as well as the GFS model for these time periods as 2 storm systems are showing up just today on NOAA models;
As you can see, the NOAA models are starting to pick up on systems that the LRC showed months in advance! Also looking back at the LRC by day/week photo from above, you can see that it is showing dry for Dec 24th/25th, so the likelihood of white Christmas is not that favorable. All of this data from the Dashboard will be injected into the Global Predictor in the next couple weeks as well as our LRC West Central Missouri Winter Forecast. Have a fantastic week everyone and I will continue to update you on the these 2 possible storm systems as we get a little closer. Subby
