Welcome to our next topic on Subby’s Weather blog! So, how reliable are weather forecasts? The quick answer is the 3-7 day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 85% on average for all forecasting agencies across America. However, a ten day or longer forecast is only right about half the time. When we talk “forecast” we are talking about the temperature within 3 degrees and whether or not precipitation of at least a tenth of an inch is to fall. Windspeeds, severe weather, etc is not included in the analytical research on accuracy of forecasts. The atmosphere is changing all the time, so the further you go out in time, the less reliable the forecast becomes. Even with all the technology we have in front of us now; new weather satellites, faster information platforms, sonar and weather balloons just to name a few, it will be nearly impossible to predict at a higher average covering large areas. Now let’s look at regional forecasts. These are the ones you typically see on such sites as The Weather Channel, AccuWeather, Weather Bug and others. Their accuracy is near 60% for a 7 day average for any 1 given location in the region they are forecasting from my calculations. This region is comprised of 3 or more states and can lead to discrepancies in the overall forecast for a particular location. The National Weather Service local forecast office 7 day forecast is about 75% to 80% accurate over the area they cover, a vast improvement over a regional forecast. They issue forecasts for a smaller area, typically for 30-45 counties in 1 state. This is why a local forecaster that covers a smaller area such as Subby’s Weather Talk and Storm Track Weather Center can issue forecasts with an 85% or better accuracy rate. There are few of us out there that only cover 5-7 counties and give priority to those counties and their interests. Not only are forecasts more accurate from local forecast centers, but weather centers such as us can dedicate more time over smaller, more familiar areas for severe weather coverage and winter storms than the big dogs. Another thing to keep in mind is the ever improving Weather 20/20 LRC modulation that is boasting over 87% accuracy for long-term 120 day forecasts. We will be speaking with the founder and CEO of the LRC in an upcoming podcast. One interesting topic for another blog is the ability to introduce Artificial Intelligence into forecast models and how well they perform. I do know that some experimental AI models that were introduced this year to help predict severe weather have been extremely accurate………but for how long? Only time will tell. Until next time, Subby.
Some facts taken from an excerpt from the national Oceanic and Atmopheric Administration “How Reliable Are Weather Forecast?”
