Good morning everyone! I thought I would spend a little time this morning and give you all an update on the new LRC cycle setting up as we speak. Remember, the new cycle sets up around October 6th. We take a look at the weather pattern daily, especially at the 500mb level (18k feet above us) and watch for similar repeats. We will then figure out the days between the cycles. We can then apply that long range to give us a better than 80 percent long range forecast for the next 10 months! We will then have a great idea of what our winter, spring storm season and our summer will be like in WCMO. I am seeing some big changes already to the weather pattern so far. Take a look at the moisture for the month of October of 2024, which was the first month of the 2024 LRC;
Now, take a look at last months data for the month of October:
As you can see, we are much wetter here in the Midwest than we were last year. Now, let’s look at the temperatures for the same time period starting off with last October data:
And now for last month’s data:
Another item of interest that I have noticed has been the strength of the storm systems and the location from which they are transcending into the Midwest. They have been powerhouses of systems and they are coming from Canada and the far Pacific North West. Now remember, the LRC will show that the storm systems will repeat themselves every so many days, of which we are figuring that number of days right now. I am already seeing a possible repeat of a strong Canadian storm system dipping down into the Midwest at the end of the month into the first week of December. Could we have enough moisture present to give us some winter precipitation???? We are too far out for that right now, but it is strong enough to issue our very first TSP (Teacher Snow Day Probability) for Monday December 1st through December 5th! That TSP will begin with a 5% for today. It is low, but as my confidence increases, so will the TSP! It’s time to give our so much appreciated teachers a little something to look forward to!! That’s it for today everyone, I will be updating you all on the progress of the LRC through the month as this is such an exciting time for us as we see the LRC set up. Have a great rest of your day!!
