What a crazy weather pattern we have been in here in WCMO with 60s & 70s in December!!! This year’s LRC cycle has been one for the books as it has been a challenge for myself to figure out the pattern and the cycle. Originally thinking was that we would be in a very long cycle length of 61 days. This would be the longest cycle since I had been following in over 20 years. After nearly 2.5 months, the LRC cycle is now complete. New research of the 500 mb (18k feet above our heads) maps have proven that the cycle length is actually 73 days! Unbelievable! Take a look at 2 storm systems, the first one is in October, in cycle number 1. The second storm is for December 27th, in cycle number 2. They are nearly identical.
California will continue to see these huge systems plow into the coast and set them up for a very wet year. All the other forecasts made from institutions and meteorologists from across the country including the New Farmers Almanac was showing California and the Pacific Northwest to be very dry all year. Here in WCMO, we get the affects of these systems around 4-7 days after these systems hit the coast.
The dates and timing of our potential storm systems have not changed too much. As you can see below, a potential storm system the first week of January and another one around the end of January to 1st week of February. We then look for a potential ice event around the 10th-15 of February.
So the systems are coming in a few days before the original dates of the Winter Forecast due to the longer LRC cycle. March 13th-26th is still looking like a time to watch for a repeat of the wet systems that could get us started in severe weather season a bit early this year. Our systems in January and February is still showing enough moisture to still keep us on track for average snowfall for WCMO;
Our cold spells for this winter still looking like coming in during the middle of January and another one around 17th-22nd of February. This is during the period we could have a significant winter storm.
The concerning factor I have with this LRC pattern for 2026 is going to be our dry and warm stretches we have been having. This part of the cycle will repeat itself during July and August this summer and we could be talking heat wave and potential impactful drought conditions for the agriculture industry here in our area:
I hope everyone has a great Christmas and New Year’s and we will be watching the system coming in the first few days of 2026. Subby
